The State of Venture - May 2026
This report was written by our AI Agents using OpenAi Codex as orchestrator. It was human guided, and post-production edited.May 2026: concentrated but investable
May 2026 recorded $22.2B across 482 disclosed rounds. The top 10 rounds captured 54.0% of capital, led by Anduril Industries at $5.0B.
Monthly Thesis
May was not a simple slowdown. It was a narrower market with larger year-over-year capital, fewer disclosed rounds, and a heavy concentration of dollars in the largest financings. Capital was +27.2% versus May 2025, but round count was -52.2%.
Three facts define the month: first, the top 10 rounds absorbed 54.0% of all disclosed capital; second, Series B carried the most capital while Seed carried the most deal count; third, the Series B qualifier rate was 11.3%, which keeps the quality read separate from raw volume.
The month was active but selective. Stage percentiles mattered more than headline dollars, quality remained concentrated in the strongest stages, and breadth was still the constraint.
Market Shape Scorecard
The market shape was concentrated but investable. Round count was -46.5% versus the prior-two-month average, while capital was -37.4%. The median disclosed round was $8.0M, compared with an average round of $46.0M.
What Changed
Compared with April 2026, capital was -41.9% and round count was -34.3%. Compared with May 2025, capital was +27.2% and round count was -52.2%.
The comparison table shows the core tension: capital was higher than a year earlier even as disclosed round count fell sharply.
Distortion Watch
The top 10 rounds represented 54.0% of disclosed capital. The outlier-adjusted view shows how much market activity remains after excluding the top 1, top 3, and top 10 rounds.
After the top 10 rounds, the month looks more concentrated than broad-based.
Founder Read
For founders, stage percentiles matter more than headline capital. Seed had the most rounds, with a median round of $3.5M and a 75th percentile round of $8.5M. A credible plan for this market shows how the round clears the stage median, why the company belongs above the 75th percentile, or why a smaller round is the better strategic choice.
Investor Read
For investors, concentration and quality moved together. Series B led capital with $5.7B, while Series C had the strongest average investor-quality signal. The open question is not whether dollars came back, but whether high-quality investors are widening participation across stages or staying clustered.
LP / Public Market Read
For LPs and public-market readers, headline capital overstates market breadth. The month had more capital than the same month last year, but far fewer rounds, so the signal is selective financing rather than a broad reopening. Ex-top-10 capital and qualifier rate carry the cleaner signal.
Stage Health
Stage health shows where activity was broad and where capital was concentrated. Series B led capital, Seed led round count, and Series C led the investor-quality read. Those are different signals, so no single stage summarizes the market.
Segment Reads
The aggregate market hides three different jobs: early-stage company formation, Series B breakout filtering, and growth-stage capacity. Early-stage rounds totaled 371, Series B totaled 53, and growth totaled 36. Series B carried the most disclosed capital at $5.7B. Top-five share means the share of segment capital captured by its five largest rounds.
The segment table shows the barbell directly: a segment can look healthy on capital while still being narrow on round count.
Round Size Percentiles
Round-size percentiles show what typical, strong, and outlier financings looked like by stage. The median is the practical founder benchmark, the 75th percentile is the strong-round benchmark, and the 90th percentile identifies rounds that can distort market perception.
How to read this table: P25 means one quarter of rounds were smaller, median means half were smaller, P75 marks the upper quartile, and P90 is the outlier boundary. Stages are ordered by median round size so a new reader can move from early-stage norms to later-stage norms.
Stage Drilldowns
The pricing question is whether a round is typical for its stage, or whether the market is being pulled upward by the top quartile. Each stage view separates the median from the 75th and 95th percentiles, showing where typical pricing ends and outlier pricing begins.
Pre-Seed Monthly Raise Percentiles
Pre-Seed narrowed sharply: 65 companies raised, with a $1.3M median and $2.1M 75th percentile. Median pricing increased +44.6% from the prior three-month average, while company count declined -64.7%. The 95th percentile was 4.3 times the median, a clear outlier gap.
Seed Monthly Raise Percentiles
Seed remained the broadest market with 180 companies, but breadth was still down -42.9% from the recent average. The median was $3.5M and the 75th percentile was $8.5M; median pricing increased +7.1%. A 4.6x 95th-to-median spread shows a large separation between typical seed rounds and the top of the market.
Series A Monthly Raise Percentiles
Series A showed stronger pricing with weaker volume. The stage had 106 companies, a $17.0M median, and a $27.5M 75th percentile. Median pricing increased +8.5% against the prior three-month average, while company count declined -43.1%. The 95th percentile was 4.4 times the median.
Series B Monthly Raise Percentiles
Series B was the clearest quality-over-volume stage. The median round reached $40.0M, the 75th percentile reached $100.0M, and only 53 companies raised. Median pricing increased +31.9% from the recent baseline, while company count declined -38.6%. The 95th percentile was 6.4 times the median.
Series C Monthly Raise Percentiles
Series C looked flat on price and weak on breadth. The stage had 22 companies, a $60.0M median, and a $100.0M 75th percentile. Median pricing was roughly flat -2.7%, but company count declined -40.0%. The 95th percentile was 4.1 times the median.
Series D Monthly Raise Percentiles
Series D weakened on price. The median fell to $41.0M across 11 companies, while the 75th percentile held at $135.0M. Median pricing declined -60.7% from the prior three-month average, and company count declined -19.5%. The 95th percentile was 5.1 times the median.
Series E Monthly Raise Percentiles
Series E was small but large-round driven: 3 companies, a $300.0M median, and a $625.0M 75th percentile. Median pricing increased +87.8%, while company count declined -55.0%. The 95th percentile was 2.9 times the median, so the stage was large but thin.
Sector Momentum
Sector momentum identifies where capital clustered by category group. Science and Engineering led disclosed capital with $15.6B across 186 rounds. Sector leadership is more convincing when deal count and capital move together, rather than when one or two large financings carry the total.
Segment Sector Momentum
Sector leadership changed by stage band. Early was led by Software with 160 rounds, Series B by Science and Engineering with 33 rounds, and growth by Health Care with 12 rounds. The pattern separates company-formation sectors from later-stage capital demand.
Repeat activity inside a segment is the stronger signal; single-round sector spikes are more fragile.
Geography Momentum
Geography momentum is ordered by round count first, then capital, so one mega-round does not define the market map. San Francisco, United States of America had 39 disclosed rounds with an average round of $72.4M. Geography becomes a market-access signal when activity and round size move together.
Segment Geography Momentum
Geography also changes by stage band. Early markets reveal where new company formation is visible, Series B shows where breakout candidates are concentrating, and growth shows where later-stage capital is still available. Early was led by San Francisco, United States of America; Series B by San Francisco, United States of America; and growth by San Francisco, United States of America.
Round count leads the geography table, which keeps a single large financing from becoming the whole geography story.
Investor Behavior
Investor behavior is segmented into early, Series B, and growth markets because the same investor list across all stages hides different jobs. In the early segment, Y Combinator appeared in 10 rounds. Series B was led by Founders Fund with 5 rounds, while growth was led by Andreessen Horowitz with 5 rounds. The active names inside each band show where public participation held up despite weaker overall round count.
Smart Money Flow
Average investor-quality signal was strongest in Series C. That stage had 28 high-score investor appearances.
Series B Quality Screen
6 Series B companies qualified from 53 Series B rounds, a qualifier rate of 11.3%. This is an aggregate market-quality screen, not investment advice.
SignalRank disclosed B activity is shown separately from public investor-history appearances. By purchase date, SignalRank had 2 disclosed B investments in May 2026. The all-time portfolio count in this dataset is 55 investments. These are activity counts, not a disclosure of private pipeline or allocation decisions.
Segment Watch Tests
June will show whether each part of the market is improving for the reason that matters most. Early-stage health is mainly a breadth question, Series B is a quality question, and growth is a concentration question.
What To Watch Next Month
For June, the important question is whether May was a narrow month or the start of a weaker run-rate. The cleanest signals are broader round count, lower top-10 concentration, and a stronger Series B qualifier rate.
Breadth recovery: next month rounds exceed the prior-two-month baseline.
Concentration easing: top-10 share falls below 45.0% of capital.
Series B quality: qualifier rate rises above 15.0%.
Interpretation Guardrails
All figures are based on disclosed public funding-round records. Sector groups are non-exclusive category tags, so a company can appear in more than one sector group. Sector totals are momentum indicators, not a market-size sum.
Geography reflects company headquarters or disclosed company location, not where capital was deployed. Investor behavior reflects public round participation and lead-investor flags, not private holdings, private investment activity, or recommendations.
Methodology
Figures are based on public funding-round records and are reconciled against internal analytical dashboards before publication. Tables and charts are published as interactive views. Ask follow-up questions at
https://agent.signalrank.com
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